السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
والصلاة والسلام على من لانبي بعده وآله وصحبه ومن تبعه بإحسان إلى يوم الدين
بناءً على نتائج البحوث العالمية في مجال الطقس، نجد جميعها تؤكد تأثر معظم أجواء العالم سلباً بظاهرة النينا والتي هي بأمر الله تكون سبباً في جفاف الجو على بعض المناطق وتغير في إتجاه الرياح ونشاط في الرياح التجارية وإنخفاض في كمية السحب، ويتوقع إنحسار النينا مع بداية عام 2008 بمشيئة الله عز وجل ، ويتوقع ان يتبعها ظاهرة النينو بحول الله وخصوصا بعد إنتهاء شتاء هذا العام ( مع ربيع 2008) ، وجميع تلك الظواهر ماهي الا أمور أوجدها العلي القدير، ونسأل الله الكريم ان تتغير الأجواء للأفضل مع بداية شتاء هذا العام ومع دخول المربعانية وأهم شيء أكثروا من الاستغفار يأخوان.
مترجم وملخص من بعص مواقع المؤسسات العالمية المتخصصة:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP 8 November 2007
Synopsis: La Niña will likely continue into early 2008.
La Niña continued to strengthen during October 2007, as equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies became increasingly negative from 170oE to the South American coast (Fig. 1). The latest 4-week analysis shows the largest SST departures (-2ºC to -3ºC) located between 140oW and the South American coast, with departures of -0.5oC to -1oC observed near the Date Line (Fig. 2). All of the Niño region indices, except for Niño-4, remained lower than -1.0oC (Fig. 3) indicating that La Niña is approaching moderate-strength (3-month running mean value of the Niño 3.4 index below -1.0oC).
Also during October, the upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific remained below average (Fig. 4), with temperatures ranging from 2oC to 6oC below average at thermocline depth (Fig. 5). Consistent with these oceanic conditions, the low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds remained stronger than average across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed throughout the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and an area of slightly enhanced convection covered parts of the far western Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect La Niña.
The recent SST forecasts (dynamical and statistical models) for the Niño 3.4 region indicate a continuation of La Niña into early 2008 (Fig. 6). Over half of the models indicate at least a moderate La Niña through December, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends are consistent with the model forecasts.
Expected La Niña impacts during November – January include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in southern and eastern regions of the Pacific Northwest. Below-average precipitation is expected across the southern tier, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 December 2007. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
وكذلك جهة أخرى تؤكد نفس النتيجة:
CURRENT STATUS as at 14th November 2007
Next update expected by 5th December 2007 (three weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |
Summary: La Niña intensifies
A La Niña event is well established in the Pacific, with further intensification evident during the past three weeks. The main characteristics of the event are colder than average temperatures along the equator both on and below the surface, stronger than average Trade Winds and reduced cloudiness. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the one ENSO indicator that is yet to show a typical La Niña signal: it remains neutral at about +6 for the past 30 days. Computer models forecast the La Niña to last at least until the southern autumn of 2008.
Ocean temperatures immediately to the north and northwest of Australia (to near Sumatra) have been warming during October and November, although they remain somewhat cooler than would normally be observed during a La Niña. This would suggest an increased chance of a more typical La Niña rainfall pattern over Australia over the coming months.
In Brief- A La Niña event is in progress.
- Negative SST anomalies persist along much of the equatorial Pacific.
- Negative sub-surface anomalies remain in the eastern Pacific.
- The 30-day SOI is weakly positive at +6.
- Trade Winds are currently stronger than average in the central to western equatorial Pacific.
- Cloudiness near the date-line is currently below average.
- All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions until at least the start of autumn 2008.